The outlook for semiconductors and electronic terminal equipment in 2012 is not clear. As the outlook for the global economy is gloomy dominates trade, consumers, businesses, and governments, their full confidence in the future years ago has ceased to exist.
In the coming months, this uncertainty still shows no signs of becoming clear. Overall, compared to 2011, which has a dismal performance, in 2012, the semiconductor industry was still characterized by contraction. This year, the entire industry is still unlikely to exceed the 300 billion market mark.
Fewer job opportunities, tighter budgets, fewer spending freedoms, more cautious and faster return on investment projects, more extreme debate over the government’s role in global or local business planning and government intelligence – - Under the combined effect of the above factors, the decline of international finance has caused many industries to stagnate.
The earth is warming, but the global economic climate is only sporadic and a few places are full of sunshine. The spring of business rejuvenation is still no sign of arrival. In the United States, the 2012 presidential election will not boost consumer confidence or business prospects. Although the electronics industry is not much better than the entire business environment, a few topics are leading us out of the fog.
Cash Depletion Every financial crisis has an extremely important impact on high technology. The high-risk electronics and semiconductor industries require huge cash injections to realize mature ideas on chips, on fiberglass, and on software. The lack of credit has seriously hampered the financing of start-up companies, resulting in a reduction in the budget for research and development. Promising projects can only be forgotten in the counters.
Many semiconductor and high-tech companies have to be tightly controlled by Wall Street or sold at low prices. As the start-up company's R&D budget is gradually reduced, the entire industry loses opportunities for diversified and exciting new products.
Green area but the "green" product area is sunny. The promotion of green electronics has created a growth area - and demand for related semiconductor products. From the system to the microprocessor to the package, smaller size, higher efficiency, and lower power consumption are driving the development of today's electronics industry.
The smart grid is a concept that takes shape at a slower pace. It will eventually require a large amount of electronic equipment to meet the monitoring and control needs, but it will not contribute much to chip growth in the short term. On the other hand, the battery-powered portable products are rich in functionality and are being welcomed. For example, today's smart phones have received much more attention than PCs.
But battery technology still lags behind the development of semiconductor technology and even software, whether it is a car battery or a mobile phone battery. Therefore, Moore's Law has been used to improve power consumption, even though Moore's company, Intel, is slower than most semiconductor companies in embracing low power consumption. Engineers like to challenge, and efficiency is an endless goal. All products with lower power consumption and better portability have a bright future.
Not all clouds in cloud computing are dark clouds. Cloud computing is evolving, but there is no way to know if it will ultimately lead to the growth of semiconductor product value or shipments.
Cloud represents another kind of efficiency: instead of allowing all PCs to have the ability to run high-performance software applications without their ability to display them, it's better to let the cloud's several powerful servers available to all who need them when they need it. Can use it. Cloud services also provide opportunities for smartphones with limited capabilities. Server clusters and storage "barns" will need to be upgraded to meet growing demand.
Network infrastructure - including mobile cellular - must continue to grow. This is the only way to solve the unprecedented increase in demand for broadband-based services and users such as data, images, video, and audio. It is hard to imagine that the network load will slow down unless it is a partial, late load. Cyber ​​security also needs to be enhanced.
Consumer electronics is vibrant but growth is focused on application software and services rather than on new specifications. There has been a new generation of gaming platforms that haven’t turned around for a while. 3D TVs and movies have had little thunder and rain, and consumers are tending to use mobile phones to handle everything.
At the time of this writing, industry annual expenditure figures have not yet been calculated, but the big shopping on the Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday (the phenomenon unique to the United States) is more about snapping up discounted goods and online shopping rather than market expansion. Unless it is very optimistic, it is difficult to tell what the gifts consumers must have this year. So what's exciting?
Admiring ARM The ARM processor architecture has gained popularity for its applicability and power consumption advantages. Chips and terminal devices based on the ARM core have benefited greatly from embedded applications over the past decade. This growth is also accelerating, and extensive support for the ARM architecture continues to attract new categories of products as well as existing products, including Intel's territory.
The proprietary processor architecture is disappearing because its unique features cannot be compared with off-the-shelf software and widely used professional skills and tools. ARM cores range from less than a dollar of microcontrollers (MCUs) to multi-core application processors. The 64-bit low-power server platform will also be available in 2012. ARM is also the dominant processor architecture that runs the Android operating system.
Sharpening Apple With an intuitive, intuitive, and interesting user interface and an elegant product appearance, Apple dominates the market that is already fully mature (splitting), with products beginning with "i" (I refers to the user himself). Service is a key factor for Apple's success. Apple allows users to easily access content without having to annoy content producers or distributors. In fact, Apple's business model quickly allows small companies to directly provide existing consumers through software services.
Competitors are clamoring for the prices Apple has set for their products, and the diversity of products that Apple offers also further strengthens its consumer base. What other company users will be called "faithful" users by the media?
Apple lost the company’s co-founder and leader Steve Jobs, which may be the most significant personal incident in the electronics industry. In fact, few political leaders even have the same impact on business and lifestyle as Jobs did. Jobs' vision, spirit, motivation, perception, and marketing capabilities are superb.
Although experiencing such losses, 2012 is still a good year for Apple. It may take us two years to see if Apple can launch heavyweight products and open up new markets without Jobs. The best entry point for choosing to promote market change is Jobs's talent. Of course, other companies are also trying to imitate Steve Jobs's decision - but not much gain.
Android's offensive Android operating system may give other OEMs the opportunity to compete with Apple. Google’s operating system for off-Apple products is based on Linux, but is designed for mobile and Internet-centric devices such as smartphones. Android is open, so any vendor can get it and it has been used for hundreds of phones and tablets.
In fact, with the introduction of other devices in the Internet Center function and touch screen user interface, Android will follow. Even in the seemingly closed Apple market, Android has knocked on the door. Android smartphone's market share is nearly 50%, surpassing iPhone.
Storage Whirlpool Although microprocessors and microcontrollers are at the heart of electronic devices, memory accounts for 20% of total semiconductor sales. This market is caught in a vicious cycle: rising demand, rising prices; investing in new factories and equipment; oversupply, price and profit collapse. Now NAND flash is diving with DRAM.
In recent years, SSD solid-state drives have begun to replace HDD hard drives in many situations. The Apple iPod has moved from HDD hard drives to flash memory a few years ago. Netbooks also began to move from all-flash models to HDD hard drives two years ago, but their sales have been hit hard by the Apple iPad, which uses flash memory.
The new Superbook, a potential contender for the iPad, has a touch screen and ultra-lightweight design—it may say that the average selling price of a laptop has risen from $300 to $1,000, but it's unclear whether consumers can accept it. The price is reversed. High prices mean laptops can use more flash memory and bring DRAM prices back up in 2014.
Objective Analysis has established a semiconductor investment model through storage and predicted a slight (up to 5%) decline in the entire semiconductor industry a year ago. It seems quite accurate now. Our current forecast for 2012 is a 10% decline, and we expect a modest recovery in mid-2013, and we will eventually achieve robust (more than 20%) growth in 2014. However, the uncertainty of the global economy may drag down this figure.
In the coming months, this uncertainty still shows no signs of becoming clear. Overall, compared to 2011, which has a dismal performance, in 2012, the semiconductor industry was still characterized by contraction. This year, the entire industry is still unlikely to exceed the 300 billion market mark.
Fewer job opportunities, tighter budgets, fewer spending freedoms, more cautious and faster return on investment projects, more extreme debate over the government’s role in global or local business planning and government intelligence – - Under the combined effect of the above factors, the decline of international finance has caused many industries to stagnate.
The earth is warming, but the global economic climate is only sporadic and a few places are full of sunshine. The spring of business rejuvenation is still no sign of arrival. In the United States, the 2012 presidential election will not boost consumer confidence or business prospects. Although the electronics industry is not much better than the entire business environment, a few topics are leading us out of the fog.
Cash Depletion Every financial crisis has an extremely important impact on high technology. The high-risk electronics and semiconductor industries require huge cash injections to realize mature ideas on chips, on fiberglass, and on software. The lack of credit has seriously hampered the financing of start-up companies, resulting in a reduction in the budget for research and development. Promising projects can only be forgotten in the counters.
Many semiconductor and high-tech companies have to be tightly controlled by Wall Street or sold at low prices. As the start-up company's R&D budget is gradually reduced, the entire industry loses opportunities for diversified and exciting new products.
Green area but the "green" product area is sunny. The promotion of green electronics has created a growth area - and demand for related semiconductor products. From the system to the microprocessor to the package, smaller size, higher efficiency, and lower power consumption are driving the development of today's electronics industry.
The smart grid is a concept that takes shape at a slower pace. It will eventually require a large amount of electronic equipment to meet the monitoring and control needs, but it will not contribute much to chip growth in the short term. On the other hand, the battery-powered portable products are rich in functionality and are being welcomed. For example, today's smart phones have received much more attention than PCs.
But battery technology still lags behind the development of semiconductor technology and even software, whether it is a car battery or a mobile phone battery. Therefore, Moore's Law has been used to improve power consumption, even though Moore's company, Intel, is slower than most semiconductor companies in embracing low power consumption. Engineers like to challenge, and efficiency is an endless goal. All products with lower power consumption and better portability have a bright future.
Not all clouds in cloud computing are dark clouds. Cloud computing is evolving, but there is no way to know if it will ultimately lead to the growth of semiconductor product value or shipments.
Cloud represents another kind of efficiency: instead of allowing all PCs to have the ability to run high-performance software applications without their ability to display them, it's better to let the cloud's several powerful servers available to all who need them when they need it. Can use it. Cloud services also provide opportunities for smartphones with limited capabilities. Server clusters and storage "barns" will need to be upgraded to meet growing demand.
Network infrastructure - including mobile cellular - must continue to grow. This is the only way to solve the unprecedented increase in demand for broadband-based services and users such as data, images, video, and audio. It is hard to imagine that the network load will slow down unless it is a partial, late load. Cyber ​​security also needs to be enhanced.
Consumer electronics is vibrant but growth is focused on application software and services rather than on new specifications. There has been a new generation of gaming platforms that haven’t turned around for a while. 3D TVs and movies have had little thunder and rain, and consumers are tending to use mobile phones to handle everything.
At the time of this writing, industry annual expenditure figures have not yet been calculated, but the big shopping on the Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday (the phenomenon unique to the United States) is more about snapping up discounted goods and online shopping rather than market expansion. Unless it is very optimistic, it is difficult to tell what the gifts consumers must have this year. So what's exciting?
Admiring ARM The ARM processor architecture has gained popularity for its applicability and power consumption advantages. Chips and terminal devices based on the ARM core have benefited greatly from embedded applications over the past decade. This growth is also accelerating, and extensive support for the ARM architecture continues to attract new categories of products as well as existing products, including Intel's territory.
The proprietary processor architecture is disappearing because its unique features cannot be compared with off-the-shelf software and widely used professional skills and tools. ARM cores range from less than a dollar of microcontrollers (MCUs) to multi-core application processors. The 64-bit low-power server platform will also be available in 2012. ARM is also the dominant processor architecture that runs the Android operating system.
Sharpening Apple With an intuitive, intuitive, and interesting user interface and an elegant product appearance, Apple dominates the market that is already fully mature (splitting), with products beginning with "i" (I refers to the user himself). Service is a key factor for Apple's success. Apple allows users to easily access content without having to annoy content producers or distributors. In fact, Apple's business model quickly allows small companies to directly provide existing consumers through software services.
Competitors are clamoring for the prices Apple has set for their products, and the diversity of products that Apple offers also further strengthens its consumer base. What other company users will be called "faithful" users by the media?
Apple lost the company’s co-founder and leader Steve Jobs, which may be the most significant personal incident in the electronics industry. In fact, few political leaders even have the same impact on business and lifestyle as Jobs did. Jobs' vision, spirit, motivation, perception, and marketing capabilities are superb.
Although experiencing such losses, 2012 is still a good year for Apple. It may take us two years to see if Apple can launch heavyweight products and open up new markets without Jobs. The best entry point for choosing to promote market change is Jobs's talent. Of course, other companies are also trying to imitate Steve Jobs's decision - but not much gain.
Android's offensive Android operating system may give other OEMs the opportunity to compete with Apple. Google’s operating system for off-Apple products is based on Linux, but is designed for mobile and Internet-centric devices such as smartphones. Android is open, so any vendor can get it and it has been used for hundreds of phones and tablets.
In fact, with the introduction of other devices in the Internet Center function and touch screen user interface, Android will follow. Even in the seemingly closed Apple market, Android has knocked on the door. Android smartphone's market share is nearly 50%, surpassing iPhone.
Storage Whirlpool Although microprocessors and microcontrollers are at the heart of electronic devices, memory accounts for 20% of total semiconductor sales. This market is caught in a vicious cycle: rising demand, rising prices; investing in new factories and equipment; oversupply, price and profit collapse. Now NAND flash is diving with DRAM.
In recent years, SSD solid-state drives have begun to replace HDD hard drives in many situations. The Apple iPod has moved from HDD hard drives to flash memory a few years ago. Netbooks also began to move from all-flash models to HDD hard drives two years ago, but their sales have been hit hard by the Apple iPad, which uses flash memory.
The new Superbook, a potential contender for the iPad, has a touch screen and ultra-lightweight design—it may say that the average selling price of a laptop has risen from $300 to $1,000, but it's unclear whether consumers can accept it. The price is reversed. High prices mean laptops can use more flash memory and bring DRAM prices back up in 2014.
Objective Analysis has established a semiconductor investment model through storage and predicted a slight (up to 5%) decline in the entire semiconductor industry a year ago. It seems quite accurate now. Our current forecast for 2012 is a 10% decline, and we expect a modest recovery in mid-2013, and we will eventually achieve robust (more than 20%) growth in 2014. However, the uncertainty of the global economy may drag down this figure.
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