2012 Electric Equipment Market Demand Analysis

In 2012, the grid side ushered in an industry inflection point, but the investment growth rate was limited. We focused on the areas identified by the growth of the smart grid, distribution network, and UHV: (1) The average annual intelligent investment in the “12th Five-Year Plan” was 35 billion yuan. The intelligent investment in distribution, electricity distribution and power supply has become a key point. The second batch of smart substations began construction acceleration and power distribution automation in the second half of 2011. (2) The investment in the 12th Five-Year Plan will reach 100 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of the total investment; of which, rural network investment will increase year-on-year. 36%, the future demand for medium and low-voltage primary equipment will maintain a growth rate of 15%-20%; (3) With the acceptance of the expansion line, UHV AC technology will continue to mature, and 2012 will accelerate the construction of UHV AC projects.

The transformation of the power-supply-side energy structure is accelerating, and clean energy investment has become a key concern, focusing on the restart of nuclear power and the acceleration of hydropower construction: (1) Nuclear power is an inevitable choice. The installed nuclear power capacity will reach 70 million kilowatts by 2020, and the AP1000 third-generation nuclear power technology will become a safe nuclear power. The protection is expected to bring nuclear power equipment demand in excess of RMB 330 billion during construction projects and new projects; (2) During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, hydropower development will accelerate. According to the hydropower plan, we forecast that the demand for hydropower equipment during the “12th Five-Year Plan” will be 104.6 billion yuan, with an annual average of 20.9 billion yuan, and orders for hydropower equipment suppliers will grow rapidly.

In the background of energy-saving emission reduction and vigorous development of new energy sources, the demand for power electronic equipment remains strong on the user side: (1) Demand for high-voltage inverters has declined due to macroeconomic impact, but there is still huge space for energy-saving transformation; (2) Wind power Affected by the bottleneck of the grid connection, the transformation market for wind power converters will reach 5 billion yuan. The demand for new wind power installations for the 12th Five-Year Plan for wind power converters will approach 20 billion yuan, facing huge import substitution space; (3) The 12th Five-Year Domestic PV installation will reach 14GW, and the opening of the domestic photovoltaic market will bring huge market demand for photovoltaic inverters. With the continuous maturation of domestic PV inverter enterprises, domestic inverter manufacturers will face development. opportunity.