5G investment and return issues

How many base stations does 5G really need? Is it 6 million, 8 million, or something else? This is a question that many are asking as the demand for mobile data continues to grow. With the rise in user traffic and the expansion of network bands, 5G is expected to be an ultra-dense network, requiring a large number of small base stations to be deployed. The issue of 5G investment and return has become a hot topic in the industry. How much will it cost to build a 5G network, and what kind of revenue and profit can it generate? There are many predictions out there, but they often overlook a crucial point: the flexible and shared nature of 5G networks. In the 2G era, we built hundreds of thousands of GSM base stations just to support voice calls. In the 4G era, millions of LTE base stations were constructed to handle mobile internet access. In both cases, the networks were built to serve a single purpose—either voice or data. That’s why the investment was huge, but the returns were limited. With 5G, the goal is completely different. It’s designed to support a wide range of services, from smart factories and autonomous vehicles to augmented reality and remote healthcare. To achieve this, the network architecture itself must change. The key technology enabling this transformation is network slicing. Network slicing allows a single physical network to be divided into multiple logical slices, each tailored to meet the specific needs of different applications. These slices share the same infrastructure but operate independently, serving different use cases such as enhanced mobile broadband, massive IoT, and critical communications. This shift changes how we think about network investment and returns. Imagine building a 5G network with a certain budget, and instead of just one slice, you can create multiple slices. Each slice can serve a different business, effectively multiplying the value of your investment. For example, if you spend X billion on a 5G network and can split it into two slices, you’re essentially building two networks at the cost of one. That could significantly improve profitability. If you can split it into three, four, or even more slices, the return on investment increases exponentially. Let’s take a real-world example. Even today, with 4G, smartphones run multiple apps simultaneously—streaming videos, playing games, downloading files. However, the current network isn’t optimized for these varied requirements. As a result, users may experience buffering, lag, or slow downloads. But here’s the thing: different apps have different needs. Streaming music requires consistent connectivity, online gaming needs low latency, and file downloads require high bandwidth. If the network could dynamically allocate resources based on these needs, the user experience would be much better. Unfortunately, 4G networks aren’t built for this level of flexibility. They’re more like a one-size-fits-all solution, which leads to inefficiencies and higher costs. That’s where 5G comes in. With network slicing, operators can create tailored network environments for different applications, optimizing resource use and improving performance. Each “slice” can be designed with specific KPIs like latency, reliability, and capacity. Based on those requirements, virtualized network functions (VNFs) can be deployed, and the necessary physical resources—such as spectrum, bandwidth, and power—can be allocated accordingly. This new model shifts the way we calculate investment and returns. Instead of just counting base stations or estimating traffic, we now look at the value each slice brings. The more slices you have, the more diverse the applications, and the higher the overall return. In short, 5G is not just about building more infrastructure—it’s about creating smarter, more efficient networks that can support a wide range of services. The real challenge isn’t just cost, but whether we can unlock new and innovative applications that make the investment worthwhile. As one carrier executive put it: “We’re building the next Internet, and it’s nothing like the one from the 1990s. It’s bigger, and we need to break free from tradition and embrace exponential innovation.”

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