When does the LED lighting era really come?

Led lighting is a hot topic, more optimistic about the future market, have to intervene, different evaluations, most do not want to miss a great opportunity. How to look at this market, estimate the arrival of LED lighting, take the next meeting to talk about their own views.

At present, energy-saving lamps have an efficiency of 80 lm/W, and LEDs are almost the same. They also refer to the light source alone, and the driver and temperature conditions currently do not reach 80 lm/W.

The use of LEDs for lighting is currently energy-efficient, and no matter how you design it, you cannot afford the instrument's multiple data measurements. Of course, I'm not saying that I can't use LEDs. There are many application cases for designing LED street lights. However, it must be pointed out that at this stage, LED street lights are energy-saving, which is a big lie! Application is not wrong, we have the responsibility to correctly guide new friends. It is our responsibility to be misled!

There are mainly three types of people who talk about energy conservation and mislead the public:

The first is that people who are covered by many "Horn of Honor" packages can't see right from wrong. They occupy a high position and use their theoretical data to freely compose articles for publication. If these people are also part of the leadership of a certain company, interests will make him "lose."

The second is that LED, LED application and sales personnel of LED products deliberately falsified and disseminated incorrect information. However, it exists in all walks of life. Since the LED public is not very aware of the actual situation, it is the easiest to be misled.

The third is that the real do not understand the LED, followed by the embarrassment. These people are often very stubborn and will not easily admit their mistakes.

LED lighting arrival time depends on the LED price, in other words depends on the LED price reduction rate and price reduction. The occupancy of LED lighting applications or the replacement of energy-saving lighting fixtures depends on the speed of development of the W/LM value.

Now, the development of each W/LM value of LED is already equivalent to the existing energy-saving lighting fixtures. Assuming that the LED brightness value is not stopped, the price is quite the same, and the LED lighting will coexist with the existing energy-saving lamps. Of course, this may be very small. I personally came into contact with a high-brightness white LED in 2002. It was used as a front-end light source for detecting CMOS lenses. It was a 3mm plug-in LED. The price was more than RMB 10 yuan. Currently, the LED equivalent is only RMB 0.6. The price has dropped by 17 times in 6 years. . In 2006, a group of 1W LEDs was purchased. The price is about 24 yuan for 60 lm. At present, it is only 6 yuan and it has fallen 4 times in three years.

LED price reduction will accelerate, if you reach the equivalent price level of energy-saving lamps, LED needs to drop to 1 yuan / W, which is fighting for the lighting market basic conditions. According to the current price reduction rate, it will be reduced to RMB 1/W/60LM within three years.

If the LED develops rapidly for every W/LM value, such as 150 LM/W or more, the cost will not be much higher than the current luminaire. The current energy-saving lamps will inevitably cause “death.” The proportion will be greatly reduced, and it is impossible to completely eliminate them. Focusing on high-power W-numbers (such as several hundred W) point-light LED lighting cannot be realized.

150LM/W currently stays in the laboratory and it is estimated that it can be commercialized in two years, and commercialization of large-area lighting can be achieved only in two years. Real energy conservation and policies will accelerate the popularity, but it will take at least 5 years. Don't worry about expensive prices. The price is not what you and I can decide. The market needs this process. LED lighting trends are certain, but from the time of price reduction is destined to do not have too good market results in the short term, even if you work hard to get the price is "fur." ​​From the time, LED lighting research now requires more investment , gestation period is longer.

It is suggested that manufacturers should not use LED lighting as their primary business for the time being. As a strategic study in the future, do not consider costs as the main consideration, and high-quality products will foster high-level products. At present, the use of plug-in 5mm LEDs as lighting can only be excessive. It is recommended to give up as soon as possible. This old-style package is designed for the indicator light, and the heat dissipation conditions are poor and the light is bad. Encapsulation consumes too much material and seriously hampers future price reduction plans.