The economic data of 2010 has been announced one after another. Most of the data are encouraging, indicating that the economic situation in China has stabilized and stabilized, but the power industry has experienced a drop in investment due to the poor performance of its main business.
In 2010, the national power investment was 364.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% over the previous year; of which thermal power investment was 131.1 billion yuan, down 15.1% from the previous year, and the newly installed thermal power capacity was 58.72 million kilowatts, down 3.4%. The decline in electricity investment is not only a regulation of the rapid growth of power investment in previous years, but also a natural choice for the existing coal-electricity mechanism in line with market laws.
Coal Supply Constrains Thermal Power Development
The thermal power unit is an important installed component in China. By the end of 2010, the installed capacity of the country was 960 million kilowatts, of which thermal power installed capacity accounted for 73.4%. Although wind power and nuclear power in China have developed rapidly in recent years, experts predict that by 2030, the thermal power unit will still be the most important power source in China. In the next 10 years, it will be a crucial period for China to build a well-off society in an all-round way. Most provinces are optimistic when doing the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and believe that the “12th Five-Year Plan†period will be a period of rapid economic and social development in our country, while energy Electricity will also maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that by 2015, the national electricity demand will reach about 6 trillion kWh, which is 1.42 times the current demand for electricity. Even considering that hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar energy all maintain rapid growth, it is expected that the installed thermal power capacity will reach 8.5 by 2015. Billion kilowatts is 1.2 times the current level.
In recent years, due to the difficulty in resolving power coal conflicts, planned power is always in a weak position in the game with coal in the market. During the peak seasons in summer and peak winter, power supply shortages caused by power coal supply problems often occur. Including coal-fired provinces.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ price index, coal prices have increased by 193% since 2001. Except for a slight decline in 2009 due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the overall coal price has shown a rapid upward trend; and the sales price is only It rose 21.5% (of which the price did not adjust in 2010). The profitable space in the power industry is constantly swallowed by high coal prices. Some thermal power companies suffer losses, and even more losses and losses are generated. Under the influence of market mechanisms, power generation companies tend to invest in wind power to obtain renewable energy subsidies, and it is not surprising that even “unconstructed industries†have entered the real estate and financial industries, and the investment enthusiasm for thermal power has declined significantly.
Significant reduction in thermal power investment
From the perspective of energy structure adjustment, it is certainly a good thing to reduce the proportion of thermal power capacity and increase the proportion of clean energy, but the question is whether the total installed capacity can meet the power demand. With such drastic changes, has the entire power industry been ready? According to the principle of energy-saving power generation dispatching, priority should be given to the allocation of hydropower, wind power and nuclear power, and thermal power should assume most of the peak-shaving tasks. However, since China has not yet introduced the peak-to-valley power generation price, the raw material cost of thermal power during peak load adjustment cannot be compensated, which will cause some damage to the thermal power enterprise’s enthusiasm for power generation. In the current state of the art, it is expected to rely on wind power. Participation in peak adjustments will take a long time, and power supply companies with adjustable power shortages will become increasingly normal, especially in the dry season.
In the next two years, as China is still in the period of accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization, the electricity elasticity coefficient remains at around 1. Electricity demand continues to maintain a rapid growth synchronous with GDP, and the realization of power balance requires a certain amount of new thermal power installations. capacity. Considering that electricity construction has a certain periodicity, the consequences of a substantial reduction in thermal power investment will gradually emerge within two years. The situation of electric power supply and demand in the country will shift from a balanced to a tight one, with local regions being tense. Not only the lack of electricity during the peak period of electricity consumption, but also the possibility of lack of electricity. Also exists.
In 2010, the national power investment was 364.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% over the previous year; of which thermal power investment was 131.1 billion yuan, down 15.1% from the previous year, and the newly installed thermal power capacity was 58.72 million kilowatts, down 3.4%. The decline in electricity investment is not only a regulation of the rapid growth of power investment in previous years, but also a natural choice for the existing coal-electricity mechanism in line with market laws.
Coal Supply Constrains Thermal Power Development
The thermal power unit is an important installed component in China. By the end of 2010, the installed capacity of the country was 960 million kilowatts, of which thermal power installed capacity accounted for 73.4%. Although wind power and nuclear power in China have developed rapidly in recent years, experts predict that by 2030, the thermal power unit will still be the most important power source in China. In the next 10 years, it will be a crucial period for China to build a well-off society in an all-round way. Most provinces are optimistic when doing the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and believe that the “12th Five-Year Plan†period will be a period of rapid economic and social development in our country, while energy Electricity will also maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that by 2015, the national electricity demand will reach about 6 trillion kWh, which is 1.42 times the current demand for electricity. Even considering that hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar energy all maintain rapid growth, it is expected that the installed thermal power capacity will reach 8.5 by 2015. Billion kilowatts is 1.2 times the current level.
In recent years, due to the difficulty in resolving power coal conflicts, planned power is always in a weak position in the game with coal in the market. During the peak seasons in summer and peak winter, power supply shortages caused by power coal supply problems often occur. Including coal-fired provinces.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ price index, coal prices have increased by 193% since 2001. Except for a slight decline in 2009 due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the overall coal price has shown a rapid upward trend; and the sales price is only It rose 21.5% (of which the price did not adjust in 2010). The profitable space in the power industry is constantly swallowed by high coal prices. Some thermal power companies suffer losses, and even more losses and losses are generated. Under the influence of market mechanisms, power generation companies tend to invest in wind power to obtain renewable energy subsidies, and it is not surprising that even “unconstructed industries†have entered the real estate and financial industries, and the investment enthusiasm for thermal power has declined significantly.
Significant reduction in thermal power investment
From the perspective of energy structure adjustment, it is certainly a good thing to reduce the proportion of thermal power capacity and increase the proportion of clean energy, but the question is whether the total installed capacity can meet the power demand. With such drastic changes, has the entire power industry been ready? According to the principle of energy-saving power generation dispatching, priority should be given to the allocation of hydropower, wind power and nuclear power, and thermal power should assume most of the peak-shaving tasks. However, since China has not yet introduced the peak-to-valley power generation price, the raw material cost of thermal power during peak load adjustment cannot be compensated, which will cause some damage to the thermal power enterprise’s enthusiasm for power generation. In the current state of the art, it is expected to rely on wind power. Participation in peak adjustments will take a long time, and power supply companies with adjustable power shortages will become increasingly normal, especially in the dry season.
In the next two years, as China is still in the period of accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization, the electricity elasticity coefficient remains at around 1. Electricity demand continues to maintain a rapid growth synchronous with GDP, and the realization of power balance requires a certain amount of new thermal power installations. capacity. Considering that electricity construction has a certain periodicity, the consequences of a substantial reduction in thermal power investment will gradually emerge within two years. The situation of electric power supply and demand in the country will shift from a balanced to a tight one, with local regions being tense. Not only the lack of electricity during the peak period of electricity consumption, but also the possibility of lack of electricity. Also exists.
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