On March 7th, the Tuoba Industrial Research Institute released a report forecasting that the global smartphone 3D sensing adoption rate will rise from 2.1% in 2017 to 13.1% this year. Apple continues to lead the market in adopting 3D sensing technology, maintaining its position as the primary driver of demand.
In 2018, the global shipment of smartphones featuring 3D sensing modules reached 197 million units, with the iPhone accounting for 165 million of those—over 84% of the total market. The value of 3D sensing modules in that year was estimated at $5.12 billion, with Apple’s contribution making up a staggering 84.5%. Looking ahead, the market is expected to grow significantly, reaching $10.85 billion by 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 45.6% between 2018 and 2020.
Despite the rising adoption of 3D sensing, the manufacturing process still faces significant technical challenges. Industry experts point out that three major hurdles remain in producing these modules. First, high-efficiency VCSEL (Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser) components are difficult to manufacture, with current average photoelectric conversion efficiency hovering around 30%.
Second, the design of structured light components and infrared CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) modules requires deep technical expertise. Finally, the production of 3D sensing modules must account for thermal expansion and contraction, adding complexity to the assembly process. These challenges have led to low production yields at this stage.
While some manufacturers are ramping up production to meet growing demand, the overall yield of VCSELs remains relatively low. According to Tuoba Industrial Research, there is a patent agreement between Luxtera and Apple, a key supplier of VCSELs. This arrangement allows Android device makers to bypass VCSELs and opt for EEL (Edge-Emitting Lasers) if they want to quickly follow suit. However, EELs suffer from lower efficiency and higher costs, which could hinder the competitiveness of Android 3D sensing solutions compared to Apple’s offerings in terms of performance and cost-effectiveness.
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