The chip market is still slightly optimistic in the second half of 2011

Semiconductor companies report on third-quarter revenue for 2011 (Source: Semiconductor Intelligence)

According to Semiconductor Intelligence, a consultancy set up by analyst Bill Jewell, the electronic industry has shown some signs of optimism in the second half of 2011. However, the agency still forecasts the growth rate of the 2011 wafer market from the original 9% to 4%.

Jewell said that the main reason for the revision of the forecast is that the semiconductor market in the second quarter of 2011 will be weak, and this will, of course, drag down the market growth rate for the entire year. Although many analysts believe that the weakness of the second quarter is due to the economic downturn in the Western countries and the fear of a renewed boom; but Jewell blamed the recession of the semiconductor market in the second quarter of the 311 Great Earthquake on the semiconductor supply chain The impact.

“The situation is not that bad;” Jewell pointed out that consumer sentiment may cause some areas to decline, but overall consumer and commercial electronics spending remains strong. For example, US consumer spending on leisure and entertainment products and vehicles grew by 75% and 15.3% in the first quarter and second quarter of 2011, respectively, and 75% of this expenditure is electronic. In addition, U.S. corporate-to-equipment Investments in software also grew by 8.7% and 7.9% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

Jewell believes that the problems faced by the chip industry in the second quarter are mainly Japan. In the current quarter, the Japanese market declined by 8.1% from the first quarter, while the rest of the world was also affected. The chip market showed a 0.9% quarterly recession.

Jewell pointed out that several stocks listed on the company's earnings forecast are optimistic. For example, Renesas estimates that chip revenue will rebound by 23% in the third quarter of 2011. Intel Corp. In addition, AMD and Qualcomm also forecast third-quarter revenues to grow healthily in the financial report, ranging from 7 to 11%, which is in line with normal seasonal conditions. However, Texas Instruments (TI) and STMicroelectronics (ST)'s earnings forecast is more pessimistic, indicating that the third quarter's revenue is a recession.

“Although the overall economic situation in the US and Europe markets is poor, the main driving force of the semiconductor market is still relatively sound, so the semiconductor industry should continue to show slow growth in the second half of 2011 and 2012;” Jewell concludes that Semiconductor Intelligence’s global wafers for 2012 The forecast of market growth rate is maintained at 10%.