Analysis: LED lighting industry investment "opportunity, logic"

Analysis: Investment Opportunities in LED Lighting Industry

By analyzing the replacement process of LED-to-fluorescent (CCFL) lamps in the field of TV backlighting, we can see that the LED backlighting CCFL backlighting has experienced the fastest decline in the price difference, which is the rapid rise time of the LED backlight penetration rate. We believe that LED lighting will repeat this process instead of traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting. In the rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, the penetration rate of LED lighting will rise rapidly. In the LED industry there is a law of Haitz proposed by Agilent's Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry. Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from the data in recent years, the increase in brightness and the decrease in cost have accelerated.

According to the forecast of the US Department of Energy, the lumen cost of white LED packages will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost between 2010 and 2012 The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time between LED and traditional lighting price spreads, and the LED lighting penetration rate will increase by leaps and bounds during this period. According to our calculations, LED lighting costs will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps around $/lm in 2012. If the LED's lifetime relative to fluorescent lamps is about 2.5 times, the LED lighting will be around 2012. The total cost of lead leads to fluorescent lighting.

Therefore, we believe that the large-scale substitution of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry. Currently, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and HIDs, each accounting for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With incandescent lamps banned in various countries, replacement of incandescent lamps with fluorescent lamps, replacement of incandescent lamps with LED lamps, and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized. As commercial/industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity charges, and the government is increasingly strict with the requirements for energy saving and emission reduction of enterprises, the commercial/industrial sector is more active in the use of energy-saving lighting products. We believe that the same process will be repeated for the replacement of LED light sources. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial/industrial area. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually be popularized in the household lighting field.

Interpretation: LED lighting industry investment logic

We believe that the large-scale replacement of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point in the LED lighting industry. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial/industrial area. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually become popular in the home lighting field.

We are optimistic about high-end packaging and downstream applications in the LED lighting industry chain. We have long been optimistic about the development of the LED industry. The next five years will be a golden period for the development of the industry. We will maintain the industry's "recommended" rating. High-end packaging: Focusing on mid-to-high-end packaging and mid-range packaging companies that have accumulated certain technologies in high-brightness and high-power packaging, we believe that modularization is the future trend of LED lighting packaging, and we will tap to have the ability to do business from existing businesses. Companies that upgrade LED lighting packages and lighting modules.

Downstream applications: In the downstream applications of LED, we choose a LED lighting manufacturer with a certain scale and own brand, and the scale and channel are the advantages that they win in the downstream fierce competition. The LED lighting manufacturer expands from the traditional business to the solid-state lighting field, and brings about an increase in valuation. At the same time, it is closer to the consumer in the position of the industry chain, and is also an ideal defense under the declining trend of the overall electronic components industry. Variety.